[大军中心编者按：为了在新年之始更好地了解世界经济，本网刊出世行经济报告中的一些章节，内容比较重要，可供大家参考。]

亚太和欧洲中亚地区经济展望

世行经济报告节选

北京大军经济观察研究中心

2006年1月1日

Regional Economic Prospects

East Asia and Pacific regional prospects

Recent developments

     GDP in the East Asia and Pacific region increased about 7.8 percent in 2005, down from 8.3 percent the year before (table A.1). This robust growth at the aggregate level masks divergent performance among individual countries, with economic activity in China having grown 9.3 percent and countries in the rest of the region up a more moderate 5.1 percent.

    Responding to administrative controls on investments, domestic demand in China slowed during the first half of 2005. However, GDP growth remained strong, because import demand increased by only 14 percent in dollar terms, while exports maintained their rapid growth of 29 percent. In the third quarter, domestic demand growth recovered. As a result, import growth picked up, which, combined with slower exports, reduced the contribution of net exports to growth. Nevertheless, net exports were responsible for more than one-third of total growth in 2005 (figure A.1), and the current account surplus is expected to reach more than 6 percent of GDP, or about $120 billion.

    A slowdown in global demand for high-tech products and the more moderate expansion in demand from China had major impacts on other East Asian developing economies. Chinese import growth (in dollar terms) from these economies fell from 35–40 percent, to about 15 percent in the first half of 2005, yielding a substantial reduction in the contribution of net exports to growth.

    Higher oil prices also played a role in the slowdown in regional domestic demand and contributedtomorethana3percentofGDPdeterioration in the current account balance of regional oil importers (excluding China). High oil prices generated cumulative terms-of-trade losses of 1–2 percent of East Asian GDP in 2004–5, or approximately 0.5–1 percent a year. Several oil importers (Cambodia, Korea, Lao PDR, Philippines, and Thailand) experienced moresignificantlossesofbetween1.5–2percent ofGDPineachofthetwoyears.Theimpactson growth, while significant, were more muted than these first-order effects. Thailand, for example, estimates that high oil prices reduced its 2005 growth by half a percentage point.

Consumer and business confidence in the region have generally held up. While central banks have gradually tightened monetary policy, interest rates in real terms remain low by historical standards. Private consumption and investment growth did not slow as sharply as during previous oil price shocks. In part, this reflects government interventions that limited the pass-through of higher oil prices via various forms of explicit and implicit subsidy.

However,asthefiscalburdenofthesesubsidies has increased, several governments have undertaken adjustments to bring domestic hydrocarbon prices in line with market prices. The most significant adjustment was made by Indonesia on September 30. Price increases ranged from 88 percent for gasoline to 186 percent for kerosene. A cash compensation program softened the impact on the poor.

Medium-term outlook

Growth in the region is projected to slow further over the next two years, with GDP expanding by about 7.4 percent in 2007. The pace of the Chinese expansion is projected to ease somewhat, as a result of both more rapid domestic demand and a return of export growth to more sustainable levels as the transitional boost to trade, reforms, and investment associated with accession to the World Trade Organization wears off. Within the rest of the region, economic activity is expected to strengthen somewhat. GDP should expand by about 5.7 percent in 2007, as a projected upturn in world demand for the region’s exports, notably high-tech goods1 (see figure A.2), partially offsets the dampening effect of high oil prices.

It is anticipated that high oil prices and strong import demand in China will result in a deterioration of the region’s current account position from a 4.8 percent of GDP surplus this year to 4.0 percent in 2007. While high oil prices are projected to increase regional inflation to around 5.2 percent this year, prudent monetary policy and flexible markets should prevent an inflationary spiral from developing.

Risks and uncertainties

This relatively benign outlook is subject to significant risks. Further substantial oil price increases would likely pose a more significant drag on growth by depressing confidence and by inducing more substantial monetary tightening. Although East Asia’s reliance on the United States as an export market has declined over the last decade, the dependence remains significant. A severe adjustment of global macroeconomic imbalances involving recession in the United States would have a serious impact on East Asian exports and growth.

China’s economy is projected to continue growing strongly. However, the recent oscillations in investment demand and the large contribution of the external sector to growth this year raise some concerns about the sustain-ability of this high growth over the medium term. The resurgence of domestic demand, particularly consumer demand, contained in the baseline scenario may be difficult to achieve. Without it, given the already high levels of investment, a sharp cyclical downswing cannot be ruled out. Such a downswing would be painful, both for China and for its major trading partners in the region.

　

Longer-term prospects

    Regional growth prospects for the next decade remain very favorable. Since the 1997 financial crisis, GDP has expanded 6.8 percent a year on average, and real per capita incomes have risen by more than 6 percent a year. While much of this strength reflects the very rapid growth in China (8.1 percent on average), the rest of the region also enjoyed robust per capita income growth of about 4.5 percent. Over the period 2006–15, regional per capita incomes are projected to continue rising rapidly, by about 5.3 percent a year in real terms. While China is likely to see a rebalancing of aggregate demand from investment toward a greater reliance on consumption, there is scope for increasing investment rates in many other economies within the region.

    Here, structural reforms could improve the investment climate by increasing the transparency and predictability of government policies, simplifying business regulations, improving cost-effective delivery of infrastructure and logistics services, and strengthening institutions for upgrading worker skills. Financial market instruments, such as local government bonds, corporate debt, asset securitization, and venture capital funds, have seen strong growth since the crisis. These could be further fostered by reforms that strengthen market infrastructure, raise accounting and auditing standards, and rationalize the policy, legal, and regulatory frameworks for these types of markets. Ongoing efforts to strengthen insolvency laws and foreclosure practices remain particularly important. Reforms to strengthen public sector governance could significantly improve states’ ability to deliver key public goods and services.

Europe and Central Asia regional prospects

Recent developments

GDP in the Europe and Central Asia region increased by an estimated 5.3 percent in 2005, close to trend growth, but was much slower than in 2004, when it grew 7.2 percent (table A.2).

The slowdown, which began in mid2004, was most marked in the Ukraine and Turkey, where growth is estimated to have declined from unsustainably high rates of 12.1 and 8.9 percent, respectively, to still robust rates of 4.4 and 4.8 percent in 2005. Excluding these countries from the aggregate, the slowdown was more modest, from 6.6 to 5.4 percent. Two exceptions to the regionwide deceleration were Azerbaijan, where growth has been underpinned by a rapid rise in oil production, and the Czech Republic, where strong export volumes have more than offset sluggish demand conditions.

High oil prices, an easing of the investment boom associated with EU accession, and a return to more sustainable growth rates were among the most important reasons for the slowing of growth in oil importing countries. These factors contributed to a weakening in domestic demand that was most apparent in Poland, Turkey, and Ukraine. Unrest in Uzbekistan and the Kyrgyz Republic had an additional negative impact on confidence and growth in those countries. Overall, growth among oil importers (excluding Turkey and Ukraine) slowed from 5.7 to 4.4 percent.

Capacity constraints, and a less rapid increase in oil revenues, served to slow growth in regional oil exporters as well, where GDP increased 6.3 percent in 2005, down from 7.4 percent the year before. In Russia, slower investment in the oil sector compounded these effects; however, in aggregate, investment growth has strengthened, which, coupled with robust private consumption, has maintained demand growth at high levels, even as the expansion of exports and industrial production has eased. In Turkey, weaker domestic demand was tied, in part, to higher taxes cutting into consumption spending and some dampening of confidence following the French and Dutch rejections of the proposed EU constitution early in the year. Since then, Turkey and Croatia have begun formal accession negotiations with the EU, which is expected to lift growth in the fourth quarter. Turkey has remained on track to meet IMF targets and is expected to complete its first review of the IMF’s new stand-by facility by end-2005.

Overall, the regional current account surplus has widened to 1.8 percent of GDP in 2005, up from 0.8 percent in 2004. Higher revenues improved the current account position of oil exporters by some 2.7 percent of their GDP, while weaker domestic demand and import growth limited the deterioration of oil importers’ current account balance to an estimated 0.4 percent of GDP. In Turkey, the current account deficit is expected to reach 6.1 percent of GDP this year, a level associated with past financial crises. However, in addition to oil imports, a significant proportion of the deficit reflects imports of investment goods (as opposed to consumption), which augurs better for the longer-term sustainability of the deficit.2 While largely financed by strong FDI inflows, current account deficits remain very high in a number of countries across the region, including in Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, FYR Macedonia, and Romania.

Inflationary pressures in the region are generally on the rise, driven by high oil prices, and in some cases by strong private consumption growth. In Russia, for instance, inflation was boosted by social spending (funded by high oil rents), and is expected to reach 10 percent by end-2005, well above the original target of 8.5 percent. In Turkey, inflation remained stable and on target, and, despite high oil prices, core inflation has continued declining. The upward trend in prices in many countries in the region was partially offset by a return to trend inflation rates in the new EU member states, following a jump in 2004 in base prices associated with their accession.

Overall, the stance of monetary policy remained stable. Some countries, such as Poland, responded to the weakening of growth by relaxing policy, while in others, such as Russia, rising inflation sparked a modest tightening of policy. Exchange rates also remained broadly stable, with those of the new member states generally following the euro. However, changes in current account positions were reflected in the movements of the Russian ruble (appreciation) and Turkish lira (depreciation).

Medium-term outlook

Regional growth is expected to stabilize over the next two years, slowing moderately to about 5.0 percent in 2007. Growth among oil importers is projected to accelerate from 4.5 percent to 4.7 percent, as oil prices ease, and the projected expansion in industrialized Europe takes hold. A stabilization and even fall of oil revenues, as prices ease, will slow the pace of growth among oil exporters from 6.3 percent to 5.5 percent. Moderately lower oil prices should also help improve the current account positions of oil importers and contribute to a deceleration of inflation in 2006 and 2007. At the subregional level, growth among the economies of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is projected at 5.8 and 5.4 percent in 2006 and 2007, respectively. They will continue to outpace Central and Eastern European countries (including Turkey), where growth is forecast to expand by about 4.4 percent in 2006 and 4.7 percent in 2007. The circulation of oil rents via fiscal linkages is projected to stimulate strong private consumption in Russia, in particular, because there are significant pressures to tap into high oil rents. Growth in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will benefit from rapidly expanding oil production and export volumes. Neighboring countries, including Turkey, are expected to benefit from continued healthy import demand emanating from the region’s oil-exporting economies, and some, such as Georgia, from a rise in revenues from oil transit fees.

Among the Central and Eastern European economies, continued strong investment inflows, especially for the new EU member states, are projected to support growth. These countries will also continue to benefit from increased market penetration into the EU, although this trend is likely to moderate as integration progresses. Similar forces and the benefits of accession-inspired reforms should bolster investment and GDP growth in Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania, which may join the EU in 2007 or 2008. The overall outlook in Turkey remains healthy, and the country remains on track to meet IMF program targets. Fiscal consolidation and recent reforms have placed the country on a much stronger footing, although its current account deficit is expected to remain high.

Risks and uncertainties

For the middle-income countries of the region, the most serious risk to this relatively benign outlook stems from the possibility that interest rates may rise much more rapidly than projected. Higher interest rates would slow the pace of investment growth and external demand, two major drivers of regional growth (figure A.3). In addition, for the highly indebted countries in the region, higher interest rates would exacerbate already high current account deficits as well as place governments’ fiscal positions under strain. This is especially worrisome because fiscal policies in many countries are already under pressure from high social security and pension obligations.

For the less-developed, oil-importing economies, which tend to be more energy (Figure A.3 External positions could come under pressure with rising interest rates) intensive, the possibility that oil prices may rise further could be the more serious risk. Estimates suggest that, for a number of countries,3 a further $30 hike in oil prices could impose an additional terms-of-trade shock of between 2 and 8 percent of GDP, implying substantial disruptions in domestic demand and worrisome consequences for poverty alleviation efforts (figure A.4).

Hydrocarbon-exporting countries, such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia, face policy challenges tied to their windfall oil revenues. They must ensure good governance of these revenues and diversify their economic activity so that they can reduce their dependence on extractive industries.

An additional risk is that less supportive economic conditions could strain fragile political institutions in some Central Asian states, leading to significant economic disruption.

Longer-term prospects

GDP in the Central and Eastern European countries over the next 15 years is projected to expand much more quickly than during the first 10 years of transition. Growth should continue to be led by high investment rates (both foreign and domestic), rising intraregional trade, and expansion in world market share as these countries continue to reap the benefits of the extensive structural reforms they have implemented. Performance is expected to improve especially in Bulgaria and Romania as they implement structural reforms in preparation for joining the EU—sometime during 2007–8. Turkey and Croatia should also benefit, although their accession is not expected before 2010. If implemented, continued improvements in the policy environment, including greater macroeconomic stability, should help to underpin the projected higher growth rates.

Although the structural reform process in many CIS countries is progressing, it is still less advanced than in the Central and Eastern European countries. As a result, long-term growth prospects for the subregion are lower. Indeed, some CIS countries have demonstrated  (Figure A.4 Impact of high oil prices)  significant resistance to the kinds of reforms that have served their Western neighbors so well. High oil prices have recently provided an impetus to growth, which has facilitated the introduction of a number of reforms to oil-exporting countries and contributed to an increase in investment outlays (particularly in the energy sector). However, oil-related wealth may reduce the appetite for reform. As energy prices come off their recent highs, countries in the region will increasingly need to rely upon productivity-enhancing and product- and labor-market reforms to spur much-needed investment.

While poverty rates in the region are lower than those in most other developing regions, many Central and Eastern European countries face significant challenges in meeting the Millennium Development Goals, especially those tied to the environment and health. For example, the region has one of the fastest growing HIV/AIDS rates in the world. And, while poverty has been reduced markedly in the region (40 million people moved out of poverty between 1999 and 2003), hurdles remain, including overcoming widespread poverty in Central Asia and in the Caucasus. Success in reducing poverty rates has varied across the region. The greatest improvements, including a reduction of inequality, were achieved in the larger CIS countries, such as Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine, largely because of high GDP growth. Smaller reductions were achieved in the new member states of the EU and smaller CIS economies, such as Tajikistan. Progress could have been better, given high growth, but job creation—the key to pulling people out of poverty—has lagged across much of the region. Improvement in this area requires expansion of economic reforms to improve the investment climate and work incentives.

________________________________________________________

北京大军经济观察研究中心

电话：86-10-63071372，传真：66079391，信箱：zdjun@263.net

地址：北京市西城区温家街2号，邮编：100031，

网站网址：www.dajun.com.cn