| [北京大军观察中心编者按：这是世界银行传阅的他们定期发布的商品价格变动报告，可供国内经济研究者了解国际市场动态。后面附有大量图表。值得关注的是，近几个月来，金属原材料等重要商品的价格曲线已经掉头向下，历时几年的价格上升趋势已经发生下降变动，这对下一阶段的世界经济意味着什么？目前的走势是暂时的调整，还是今后长期的趋势？值得大家思考。]
国际商品市场价格变动评述 Commodity Markets Review July 12, 2006 DECPG, The World Bank Metals prices began to recover in late June as investors signaled renewed optimism for economic growth and metal demand. Copper and zinc prices have risen 15 percent the past three weeks. The rebound follows widespread liquidation of risky assets in May and June. Agriculture and oil prices also declined in June but have exhibited far less volatility in recent months than metals. Significant declines in agriculture prices were limited to bananas, sugar, coffee and palmkernel oil. Crude oil prices slipped 0.6 percent in June, to average $68.3/bbl. However, since mid-June prices have steadily advanced to reach a record nominal high of nearly $73/bbl (World Bank average) in early July. While inventories remain comfortable, geopolitical concerns and a tightening U.S. gasoline market have helped underpin prices. Tensions continue to center on Iran’s refusal to suspend research on its nuclear program, which may prompt the United Nations to impose sanctions. In addition, over 0.5 mb/d of production remains off-line in Nigeria. There are also concerns that a more active-than-normal hurricane season in the U.S. Gulf
could again disrupt refinery output, as well as crude oil and natural gas production. U.S. Agricultural prices fell 1.0 percent in June, with declines concentrated in a few food and beverage commodities. Sugar prices fell 8.4 percent due to Brazil’s large crop harvest as well as favorable production outlooks for other major producers. Lower sugar output in the European Union due to policy reform is expected to be offset by larger production in India, the U.S. and other countries. Coffee prices fell 5.7 percent on expectations of a large increase in Brazil’s crop for the 2006/07 season. Partly offsetting the declines were increases in rubber prices due to supply reductions and strong demand in China. Average tea prices rose 5.0 percent reflecting an 11 percent seasonal jump in Kolkata prices. Metals and minerals prices plunged 8.4 percent in June, part of a widespread sell-off in risky assets that was partly triggered by the falling dollar in May. Nearly all metals prices dropped by 10 percent or more, with lead and aluminum falling 17 percent and 13 percent, respectively, as stocks are higher than for nickel, copper and zinc. The one metal that did not fall sharply—and which has soared to all-time nominal highs in early July—is nickel, due to sharply declining inventories, supply tightness, and a strong recovery in stainless steel demand this year. In late-June all other metals prices began to rebound on expectations of continued strong growth in demand and supply shortfalls, amid extremely low inventories for most metals.
Prepared in the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) by Donald Mitchell, Shane Streifel, John Baffes and Betty Dow. Katherine Rollins is task assistant. This report is available on http://decpg.worldbank.org. Major Movers in June（1） （1） Percent change of average June prices compared to average May 2006 prices in nominal U.S. dollars (graph also includes 12-month changes in grey). Rubber prices gained 10.7 percent to reach $2.73/kg, a record nominal monthly high. The increase reflected high oil prices, strong demand in China, and reduced output from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Tea prices (three-auction average) rose 5.0 percent as Kolkata prices climbed seasonally by 11 percent. Mombassa prices rallied 5 percent as unfavorable weather resulted in an 8 percent drop in Kenyan tea production in May. Palmkernel oil prices declined 4.5 percent due to a significant increase in supplies from Indonesia. Coffee (arabica) prices fell 5.7 percent in response to an expected 24 percent increase in Sugar prices decreased 8.4 percent due to the large crop being harvested in Brazil and the favorable outlook for production by other major producers. Urea and potassium chloride fertilizer prices fell 8.6 and 4.4 percent, respectively, on weaker demand following the end of the planting season in the northern hemisphere, and aggressive export competition for remaining orders. Zinc prices decreased 9.5 percent, although inventories continue to fall sharply amid strong steel demand and insufficient supply growth. Copper prices fell 10.5 percent although the market remains tight on critically low and falling inventories, and numerous technical and labor supply disruptions. Tin prices decreased 10.6 percent, but have rebounded sharply recently as stocks continue to decline and Indonesia’s largest producer indicated it would cut production by 10 percent this year to reduce inventories. Gold prices fell 11.7 percent, affected by the broad-based liquidation of risky assets as well as appreciation of the dollar during much of June. Aluminum prices decreased 13.4 percent, as inventories remain relatively large—despite strong demand—due to continued strong growth in production in China. Lead prices fell 17.4 percent on rising stocks, as production growth continues to outpace relatively strong battery demand in China. Silver prices plunged 19.5 percent, leading the widespread withdrawal from risky investments, and reversing the spike in prices that was partly associated with introduction of Barclay’s exchange-traded fund at end-April. Bananas prices in the U.S. dropped 29.3 percent reflecting the availability of other fruits and the reduced freight rates from lower chartering activity. Percent Changes in Price, Nominal US $
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